It currently feels as if all outcomes are possible for Alexander Isak at Newcastle United.
Isak wants to leave Newcastle United and Liverpool want to sign him.
Newcastle, however, do not want to sell the Sweden star, at least until they can sign some convincing replacements.
It would be foolish to suggest that losing Isak wouldn’t be a bitter blow for the club.
Still, if they could sign two strikers this summer all while banking what would surely be a British-record fee for a player who wants to leave anyway, a deal could make sense.
Obviously, that is reliant on Newcastle actually being in a position to sign two forwards this summer – and little about what they have done so far would suggest that is the case.
However, the kind of money involved in a potential deal for Isak is difficult to ignore, particularly in a world dominated by the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR).
With that in mind, Geordie Boot Boys spoke to football finance expert Adam Williams.
- Who is Alexander Isak? The striker who burned his Newcastle United reputation to force £125m Liverpool transfer
Newcastle United could spend huge money if they sell Alexander Isak
Williams had little doubt that owners PIF would happily reinvest the money into the Newcastle United squad if they were to cash in on Isak.
While the Newcastle United owners are already in a position to spend money this summer due to the club’s healthy financial position, selling the wantaway forward could open up new doors on the PSR front.
“PSR is much less of a concern for Newcastle this window than it has been previously, which makes the Isak situation all the more infuriating,” said Williams.
“Even before any would-be sale, they have the luxury of the £72m loss they made in 2022-23 dropping out of the equation. At the operating level, they are losing about £70m per year, but they sold well in PSR terms last term, and they’ve got Champions League income to boost the numbers this coming season.
“If they sell Isak, it won’t be because of PSR. Under UEFA’s system, which they have to comply with because they’re in Europe, things will be tighter. But again, I think they should be fine when you factor in natural revenue growth and profit on player sales. The squad cost element of the UEFA rules might be trickier, but clubs are seeing that more as a luxury tax than anything else.
“They can pay a fine and move on – and as long as you don’t make a habit of falling foul of the rules, they shouldn’t get any sporting sanctions there.
“What the Isak sale fee would do is massively bolster their cash reserves. They’re probably demanding a big chunk upfront, and FSG typically prefer to do business that way anyway. So, it will be more heavily weighted to the initial fee than instalments. But that’s largely immaterial as PIF are willing to externally fund transfer business anyway, so cash has never been an issue for them.
“Newcastle will reinvest all of the proceeds from the sale of Isak, if it goes through. Given the owners’ stance of always spending up to the limit of PSR, I’m pretty sure of that – it’s just a matter of when.”
However, there is an issue. Having funds to spend is one thing, but actually getting deals over the line has proven an arduous process for the club this summer.
Not only would Newcastle be trying to sign replacements with so little time left in the transfer window, every selling club would know they have huge money to spend.
“They probably budgeted for a £150m-plus net spend this summer anyway. If you add another £100-150m on top of that, then you’re talking a massive number in terms of gross expenditure,” added Williams.
“The issue, however, is whether they will be able to line up that spending before the end of the window. To do that amount of business with less than a month of the window to go is a tall order.
“PIF don’t like to panic buy, so it’s a question of strategy and whether they are getting value from the targets they’re looking at. On top of that, clubs are going to know that they are cash-rich if Isak does go, so that gives them more leverage in negotiations with Newcastle. It’s known within the industry that PSR isn’t holding them back too.
“And with all that considered, they’re in a bit of a tight spot, I would argue. They aren’t going to be strong-armed by anyone in terms of new signings, but it would take something pretty historic for them to reinvest all of the Isak cash and their initial budget before 1 September.”
How much Newcastle United would demand for Alexander Isak
Newcastle value Isak at around £150million, although it remains to be seen if his strong desire to leave alters that.
There is logic in selling Isak. Eddie Howe will have quite the job on his hands to get the player’s head right if he does end up staying, after all.
Still, it’s hard to see how Newcastle spin this positively without getting players through the door first.
Signing two strikers and getting a huge sum of money for Isak would be at least something to take from this saga.
Selling Isak just because he wants to go without having players lined up to replace him would be a disaster, no matter how much money is involved.
Receive a digest of our best Newcastle content each week direct to your mailbox
