Newcastle United have been backed into an impossible position in regard to Alexander Isak.
Indeed, Isak has asked to leave Newcastle United this summer despite the fact he still has three years left on his contract.
Newcastle have always insisted that Isak isn’t for sale, and it will be fascinating to see just how committed they are to that stance after his desire to leave was made public.
Isak would be a huge loss to Eddie Howe. He’s arguably one of the best forwards in European football, and currently looks incredibly difficult to replace this deep into a transfer window.
Still, Newcastle value Isak at over £150million and there’s little doubt that kind of money could be game-changing in a PSR landscape.
With that in mind, Geordie Boot Boys spoke to football finance expert Adam Williams about what selling Isak could do for the Newcastle United owners.
- Who is Alexander Isak? The striker who burned his Newcastle United reputation to force £125m Liverpool transfer
PIF warned against selling Alexander Isak to Saudi Arabia
Williams highlighted that while Newcastle are in a strong PSR position as things stand, that may not be the case forever and selling Isak could ensure the kind of issues the club endured in 2024 are a thing of the past over the next couple of years.
“As most fans will be aware by now, Newcastle don’t have any immediate PSR concerns this summer,” said Williams.
“They can spend pretty freely and don’t need to worry about making sales to fund their incoming signings.
“That’s not to say that we won’t see further sales, however. It’s healthy to have a certain amount of squad churn, and it gives you more PSR leeway in future seasons when things might be a little tighter. So, while Newcastle aren’t going to be pressured into selling Isak from a PSR perspective, there’s a business case for it too.”
- READ MORE: What Alexander Isak said about PIF immediately after he signed Newcastle United contract in 2022
Interestingly, Isak has been linked with a move to Al Hilal.
The Saudi Arabian side are, of course, owned by Newcastle United owners PIF.
Still, and while selling Isak abroad may be much more palatable to supporters than letting Liverpool get their hands on him this summer, it might not be the wisest decision on the financial front for Newcastle.
UEFA’s financial rules impose stricter limits on what clubs can lose.
“Another thing to consider is UEFA’s financial rules,” Williams added.
“The loss limit is a little tighter than at Premier League level, with Newcastle limited to losing around £75m over a rolling three-year period as opposed to £105m in the Premier League.
“Newcastle have more issues here because some of the player sales that they have made to PIF-owned sides have been adjusted by UEFA, hitting the bottom line to the tune of around £27m in the last financial year.
“There is another element of UEFA’s rules based on squad cost as a proportion of revenue that could be prohibitive too. Under this system, you can’t spend more than 70 per cent of turnover plus a three-year average of player sale profits on wages, transfers and agents’ fees. This is a calendar-year test.
“I think there’s a good chance Newcastle could fail both UEFA tests this time around, but selling Isak would likely eliminate those fears.
“He signed for the club for £60m or so three seasons ago, so his remaining book value is about £24m. You have to detract that book value from his would-be sale fee to work out the profit for PSR purposes, so we’re talking in the region of £125m if he went for about £150m.
“Clearly, it’s also going to free up probably £7-8m in wages, and that’s before you begin to think about offering him an improved contract. You’re also going to clear around £12m in annual amortisation.
“So that’s a PSR saving of at least around £165m over the next two seasons. One thing to note here is that, for UEFA PSR purposes, Isak wouldn’t deliver the same boost if he was sold to a PIF-owned Saudi club. UEFA would adjust the value of the sale for PSR here.
“So, a sale to a European team would make much more sense in that regard. I don’t think Newcastle will make their decision on the basis of UEFA’s financial rules – the punishments aren’t extreme enough. But it’s a factor to consider and there’s no doubt that registering £125m worth of profit in one swoop would be pretty transformative for their PSR position at UEFA level.”
How Newcastle United teammates have reacted to Alexander Isak saga
Selling Isak brings its financial benefits but makes the club look weak, given just how strong their messaging has been about his future.
Keeping Isak means the club do not lose any face, though they’ll have what could be a very unhappy player on their hands and everyone now knows he’s been trying to leave. It also denies them huge funds to rebuild.
It’s an impossible situation for the club to be in, and an ugly one at that.
The rest of the Newcastle United squad have some very difficult questions to answer. Currently out in Asia on a pre-season tour, some of the players have naturally been asked about the Isak situation.
Dan Burn wants Newcastle to keep Isak, though admitted questions about his future should be for the striker himself.
“If we lost any player it would upset our tight-knit group that’s been together a few years now,” he said.
“We are looking forward to getting him back when he’s fit.
“It’s a question for Alex to answer. He’s obviously a big player for us, but we do have a lot of quality in the squad as well. Bringing Anthony [Elanga] in as well, which I think was a great signing.”
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