The season is ticking on by and this weekend’s games saw Newcastle United lose pace with the teams at the top once again.
It was another disappointing collapse for Newcastle as they threw away a two-goal lead at St. James’ Park against Chelsea. A 2-2 draw against the Blues is not a bad result on paper, but given the circumstances, it certainly feels like two points dropped.
AGREE OR DISAGREE: Eddie Howe hasn’t had it easy this season, but he should be doing much better
Elsewhere, we saw wins for Liverpool, City and Arsenal, while Aston Villa continue to pull away from Newcastle and the chasing pack.
Eddie Howe and his players have their work cut out to catch the top teams this season, and Opta’s supercomputer certainly agrees.
- READ MORE: Eddie Howe has five days and three things to fix at Newcastle United ahead of Man United clash
Opta drops Newcastle’s chances of Champions League qualification
After gameweek 17, Opta has updated its projection for the 2025/26 Premier League campaign and while the supercomputer still thinks Newcastle will finish eighth, their hopes of a Champions League spot have been diminished once more.
A week ago, after the Tyne-Wear derby defeat, Newcastle were expected to end the season with 56 points and were given an 8.27% chance of landing a Champions League place.
Now, after the draw against Chelsea, that projected points tally has dropped to 55 and their Champions League odds are down to just 5.76% as things stand.
The fact that Newcastle keep throwing away winning positions isn’t helping matters, of course. Considering Newcastle have tough fixtures coming up in 2026, it’s not surprising Opta has reduced their chances of success.
Arguably the most important factor in all of this, though, is the fact that the teams around them are getting results when it matters.
- READ MORE: Anthony Gordon and Nick Woltemade battle for Newcastle United man of the match award vs Chelsea
Throwing it away AGAIN! 😬
Newcastle drop points from a winning position once more… Which of these failures disappoints you the most?
The gap to the top three is already too big
Newcastle are only six points behind both Liverpool and Chelsea right now. That’s not ideal, but it is a gap that can be closed if things go right for the Magpies in the coming months.
However, it’s the 13-point gap between Aston Villa and Newcastle that really feels unassailable now. On paper, there really shouldn’t be that much disparity between the two teams, but Newcastle have regressed this season while Villa have taken themselves to the next level.
PIF wanted a top five finish for Newcastle this season. At the moment, that looks a distant dream, and the next two transfer windows will be crucial in closing that gap.
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