A bitter Premier League campaign for Newcastle United in 2025-26 still has millions of pounds riding on the final day.
It is not mathematically confirmed that Newcastle will have no European football next season. They could yet finish closer to the bottom three than the Champions League places.
The fact Eddie Howe’s future is under consideration despite twice marching the Magpies into Europe and winning the club’s first silverware in 70 reveals all you need to know about this term’s fall from grace. It has been a season in which PIF’s commitment has been questioned, recruitment went haywire, and the team’s form away from St James’ Park has been pitiful.
When Newcastle went into the final day of 2024-25, there was potentially up to £100m-plus on the line given that Champions League football was the prize. The final-day trip to Fulham is nowhere near as high-stakes, but there is still considerable revenue available in the form of Premier League prize money.
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And ahead of a summer in which Newcastle should have ample room under the incoming Squad Cost Ratio rules to spend, the sums on offer could make a material difference.
As well as the opportunity to spare some blushes by finishing above Sunderland, Newcastle could finish anywhere between 9th and 14th. That’s a big range – and, given that the Premier League allocated about £2.6m in increasing increments for each place in the division last season, that implies that it could be worth nearly £16m if they finish at the more favourable end of it.
In fact, the final amount could be even bigger for two reasons: 1) The Premier League is in its first year of a new-and-improved TV deal and 2) the league’s central costs should, in theory, be lower.
The new TV deal with Sky Sports and TNT Sports is worth about four per cent more than its predecessor. That revenue will increase the portion of the merit payments that are paid out of the domestic media pot.
And because most of the costs of Manchester City’s ‘115’ charges case materialised in the previous two seasons, the Premier League’s legal costs should be significantly lower. Documents seen by Geordie Boot Boys show that £44.6m and £48.1m were spent in legal fees in the last two completed seasons, up from £11.3m in 2022-23.
Any money the Premier League earns after costs is redistributed among clubs, which means some of it – and not an insignificant amount by any means – will fall into Newcastle’s pocket, bolstering the funds PIF allocate for transfers and wages.
In all, Geordie Boot Boys analysis suggests that a best-case scenario on the final day against Fulham could bank Newcastle an extra £18m compared to a worst-case one. That, of course, will heavily depend on results elsewhere, but it would be a nice silver lining at the end of an anti-climactic campaign.
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