There is still a long way to go this season, but Newcastle United may well be facing the prospect of missing out on their major target this term.
The win against Burnley on Tuesday night helped Newcastle end 2025 on a high and lifted the Magpies up to tenth place in the Premier League table. Granted, there are games to come tonight, but it’s a positive step in the right direction.
How many points will Newcastle get here?
Surely anything less than 12 points would be unacceptable… 👀
Across this highly inconsistent campaign, Newcastle have rarely been in the top half of the table. And, with results and performances varying wildly week to week, it’s been very hard to predict how the season will play out.
While some are still concerned despite the win over Burnley, Newcastle have gone up in the estimations of Opta’s supercomputer — but there is a catch.
- READ MORE: Lewis Hall dominates fan vote after Burnley but another Newcastle United ace gets special mention
One place higher but Champions League hopes fade
According to the latest update from Opta, Newcastle are now predicted to finish seventh in the final Premier League table. That’s up one spot from the previous projection in the wake of the defeat to Man United on Boxing Day.
In fact, Newcastle are now near enough neck and neck with the Red Devils with 55 points expected for both teams. There’s every chance the Magpies could breach the top six, then, but that wouldn’t be enough to land a Champions League spot.
Indeed, Newcastle’s hopes of finishing in the Champions League places are fading fast. Before Christmas, Eddie Howe’s side were given a 6% chance of finishing in the top four. Now, that’s down to 4.80% despite the win over Burnley.
That number has been dropping dramatically week by week, down from over 8% at the start of December. The problem is, while Newcastle have been missing out on valuable points here and there, their rivals at the top of the league have been flying.
Aston Villa continue to excel, Liverpool are back on track, and Man City and Arsenal look well and truly out of sight already. Can Newcastle actually catch up?
- READ MORE: Mark Clattenburg cites Anthony Gordon incident as ‘frustration’ grows amid latest Chelsea injustice
Convince me otherwise: Eddie Howe gave me my greatest day as a Newcastle fan but he has taken us as far as he can
DISCLAIMER: It's not all his fault, chaos behind the scenes and PSR does not help 😡
How Newcastle’s season compares to 2024/25
If we take a look at how this season compares to last year, there’s an interesting observation to be made. The fact of the matter is Newcastle are lagging behind 12 months later.
After 19 games in 2024/25, Newcastle were up in fifth place and had 32 points to their name. Right now, the Magpies are sitting on 26 points. Just think what could have been if just half of those 13 points they’ve squandered from winning positions had been retained.
One of the major issues, it seems, is in the goalscoring department. At this stage last year, Newcastle had a goal difference of +11, with 32 scored and 21 conceded. Now, the Magpies are on only +2, with 26 goals scored.
While Nick Woltemade has made a bright start in terms of goalscoring, and Yoane Wissa appears to be on track, it’s clear Newcastle just aren’t as clinical as they were last season, and it’s costing them points.
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