Things are not going to plan for Newcastle United and Eddie Howe this season, in the Premier League at least, and the repercussions could be huge.
After last season’s fifth place finish and the Carabao Cup triumph, things looked pretty positive for Newcastle and Eddie Howe.
However, while their cup progress this season is promising, Premier League results have not been good enough at all. The Magpies are currently in 14th place heading into the weekend.
There’s a tough run of fixtures coming up for Newcastle leading up to Christmas that could make or break their season, and it’ll be a costly slip-up if Howe can’t turn things around soon.
- READ MORE: Amanda Staveley and Mehrdad Ghodoussi are ‘super proud’ of Eddie Howe despite Newcastle struggles
What happens if Newcastle United miss out on Champions League football?
In a Geordie Boot Boys exclusive, we spoke to finance expert Adam Williams about the situation at Newcastle and what the ultimate cost would be if the Magpies fail to land in the Champions League qualification spots this season.
He said: “If Newcastle don’t make it into the Champions League, they are likely missing out on about £16.5m in a flat participation fee and probably about the same in terms of the value pillar, which UEFA distribute based on clubs’ five and 10-year coefficients as well as the value of their country’s TV deal. So, let’s call it £30m before a ball is kicked.
“On top of that, there’s the best part of £35-40m available in prize money in the league phase. Even in a scenario wherein they have a really poor league phase campaign, they’ll still be looking at, say, £10m in prize money there. So £40m is a good entry point in terms of what Newcastle would lose in guaranteed prize money.
“These figures are all pretty fluid and depend on the value of UEFA’s central commercial rights from year to year, but the margin for error won’t be too wide.”
Obviously, we have to take into account the commercial value of Newcastle United, too, especially the appeal of matchdays at St James’ Park.
On this, Williams added: “You’re looking at four more matches at St James’ Park – and matches that they can charge top dollar for. You’re probably targeting at least £10m from those fixtures. If you finish in the top two thirds, you’re guaranteed at least one more home match on top of that. Then, there’s bonuses from sponsors and so on, plus a potential retail boom as supporters buy more kit and so on.
“All in all, I think £55m in revenue is a decent figure for what they would get as a minimum in the Champions League compared to having no European football at all.”
However, with Champions League football comes a greater outlay, too, so it’s not all big bucks and healthy profit margins.
“One thing to note, however, is that is revenue, not profit. You’re also going to pay out significantly more in wages and bonuses to players, plus operating costs for more matches at St James’ Park. That offsets the actual profit you make from a European campaign,” Williams concluded.
- READ MORE: Joe Cole offers verdict on Newcastle United’s squad after watching Chelsea’s Champions League draw
Where Newcastle United are projected to finish this season
As things stand, Newcastle are nowhere near the top four (or five, as the case may be) and they look very unlikely to secure Champions League football for next season.
While some say Eddie Howe should be under no pressure given what he’s achieved at Newcastle and the PSR restrictions he’s worked under, being in 14th place is absolutely not good enough.
| Position | Team | Played MP | Won W | Drawn D | Lost L | For GF | Against GA | Diff GD | Points Pts |
| 11 |  BrightonBrighton | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 |  BrentfordBrentford | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 |
| 13 |  EvertonEverton | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 |  NewcastleNewcastle | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 |  FulhamFulham | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 |  LeedsLeeds | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 11 |
| 17 |  BurnleyBurnley | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 10 |
Opta’s supercomputer predicts Newcastle will finish 12th, which would also be a very disappointing outcome for this season, and would likely cost Howe his job regardless of what he’s done before.
At the moment, Newcastle are operating at an average of 1.09 points per game. Spread that across a 38-game campaign, and the Magpies are looking at just 41 points.
That’s 25 points less than last season, and would be less than the 42 points Man United achieved last term to finish 15th. Whichever way you look at it, things have to drastically improve or Newcastle will be in a real mess come the end of the season.
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