A point away at Bayer Leverkusen is not necessarily a bad thing, but it does set Newcastle United back in their pursuit of Champions League progress.
It’s now four games unbeaten in all competitions for Newcastle United, though many will say they should have picked up all three points in Germany last night.
Will Newcastle advance to the next round of the Champions League?
10 points from 6 games is good, but a win vs Leverkusen could have moved us up to 6th!
After fighting back from a goal down at half-time, Newcastle had victory in their sights with minutes to go thanks to another Anthony Gordon penalty and a special Lewis Miley goal.
A late goal conceded leaves Newcastle in 12th place in the Champions League table with two games left. So, can they make it into the all-important top eight? Sadly, the odds are stacked against them.
Supercomputer isn’t confident about Newcastle’s Champions League hopes
Despite only being two points off eighth placed Atletico Madrid (and Inter Milan in sixth, for that matter), Opta’s supercomputer has delivered a disappointing projection for Eddie Howe and co.
According to the prediction there, Newcastle are destined to finish in 14th place with 12 points, which means the supercomputer believes the Magpies will draw their next two games against PSG and PSV Eindhoven.
Newcastle now have just a 10.85% chance of making it to the last 16. When you compare that to the teams above them in the projection, it’s a worrying figure.
Chelsea have more than double the odds of progression at 23.62%, while Borussia Dortmund sit at 23.62% and Spurs have a 25.96% chance.
Clearly, then, despite an 89.15% chance of securing a play-off spot, Opta doesn’t fancy Newcastle’s chances of getting past any of the teams they’re likely to face there.
- READ MORE: Eddie Howe hits the nail on the head as Anthony Gordon’s transformation saves Newcastle United again
Who was your MOTM vs Bayer Leverkusen?
PSV game will be key to Newcastle’s hopes
Indeed, the mission to qualify for the next round is tough for Newcastle, but not impossible.
Given PSG’s quality, you have to assume Newcastle will struggle there away from home on the final day of the league phase.
However, the next game, against PSV, is crucial. At St. James’ Park, against a team struggling down in 21st place right now, Newcastle have to assert their dominance.
Win there, and the PSG result won’t matter all too much. However, fail to pick up the three points against PSV, and even the play-offs could end up being out of reach.
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