It’s a cliché for sure, but football really is a funny old game. As things stand now, there’s still a chance that if Newcastle United were to bag that coveted fourth spot in the Premier League, they may still not find themselves playing Champions League football next season.
The odds on this happening are long, but stranger things have happened. In fact, this very scenario has happened recently with Tottenham missing out on Champions League football through similar circumstances back in the season when Alan Pardew guided his Newcastle side to a fifth place finish.
A report in The Chronicle has outlined a scenario that would see fourth place relegated to a Europa League winning spot instead of Champions League.
For that to happen, though, several things need to fall into place and when you see what needs to happen you’ll see how unlikely the scenario is.
First off, Chelsea, who are struggling in the Premier League this term and look set to miss out on European qualification via their league placement would need to win the Champions League. They’re still in contention, albeit they have to overcome Real Madrid in the next round on their way to the final, but again, stranger things have happened.
At the same time, Manchester United would have to go on to win the Europa League. They’ve got Sevilla up next in the quarter finals, but this, out of all the scenarios that need to align, is the most likely to happen I feel. Erik ten Hag‘s side look like a good bet to win the competition. If they were to win the Europa League that gives them a ticket to next season’s Champions League.
That’s where it all becomes fun and games as UEFA rules state that no more than five teams from any country and be in the Champions League.
So with Arsenal and Manchester City pretty much nailed on as qualifying for the Champions League by virtue of league position, that’s two places taken already. Chelsea winning the Champions league is three. That still leaves third and fourth place in the Premier League, so if Manchester United finish third, it doesn’t matter whether they win the Europa League or not, fourth place still gets into the Champions League.
But should Manchester United drop out of the top four while winning the Europa League and Newcastle finish fourth, they’d miss out as Man United would get their Champions League place through winning the Europa and whomever finishes third would take the fifth Champions League spot.
So in summary, Chelsea and Man United would need to win their respective European competitions, Manchester United would have to drop out of the top four and someone else would have to overtake Newcastle and finish third for us to miss out.
Highly unlikely set of circumstances. Surely Newcastle can’t be that unlucky for all those things to happen. Can we?
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