Newcastle United fans are licking their wounds today after a disappointing defeat to Sunderland in the Tyne-Wear derby, but there is reason to be positive.
After waiting since 2016 for another league clash against Sunderland, most Newcastle United fans would probably wish it never happened now.
How can this Newcastle team get fans back onside after losing to Sunderland?
It’s a defeat that will sting more than any other this season, especially with bragging rights firmly belonging to Sunderland now. However, that may only be temporary.
There’s still a long way to go this season, and it sounds like Eddie Howe can still make amends for that poor showing at the Stadium of Light.
Newcastle will still finish well above Sunderland this season
We’ve been keeping a close eye on what the Opta supercomputer predicts will happen this term, and interestingly, that win for Sunderland has not moved the needle all that much.
In fact, come the end of the season the Black Cats are still projected to finish in 14th place, six places and around six points behind the Magpies in the Premier League table.
| Pos | Team | xPts | Title | UCL | UEL | UECL | REL |
| 8 | Newcastle | 56.06 | 0.07% | 8.27% | 8.08% | 0.00% | 0.13% |
| 9 | Brighton | 55.77 | 0.06% | 7.49% | 7.34% | 0.00% | 0.14% |
| 10 | Everton | 52.67 | 0.01% | 2.67% | 3.48% | 0.00% | 0.71% |
| 11 | Spurs | 52.64 | 0.00% | 3.23% | 4.13% | 0.00% | 0.78% |
| 12 | Brentford | 50.34 | 0.00% | 1.21% | 1.66% | 0.00% | 1.46% |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 49.84 | 0.00% | 1.19% | 1.81% | 0.00% | 2.25% |
| 14 | Sunderland | 49.66 | 0.00% | 0.72% | 1.53% | 0.00% | 1.71% |
Right now, Sunderland are currently right in the mix for a European spot and Newcastle are actually closer to the bottom three than they are the top four. But, Opta believes that will all change.
Newcastle’s chances of Champions League qualification have dropped from over 15% to just over 8% now after the Tyne-Wear derby, but that’s still far better than Sunderland’s measly 0.72% odds of finishing in the top four (or five, depending on UEFA co-efficiency points).
- READ MORE: Three ‘awful’ Newcastle players slammed by Alan Shearer after ‘rotten’ performance vs Sunderland
How has the loss to Sunderland made you feel about Eddie Howe as Newcastle United manager?
What happens if Newcastle lose to Sunderland at St. James’ Park?
Clearly, Opta’s supercomputer believes Sunderland will drop off at some point, while it looks like Newcastle are backed to find their feet and climb the table eventually.
But, will finishing above Sunderland be enough to guarantee bragging rights remain on Tyneside come the end of the season? If Newcastle do only finish eighth, that’s a failure by any measure considering the target is a top five spot.
What’s even more interesting to think about is, what if Sunderland were to do the double over Newcastle this year? That would severely alter the power balance in the North East, regardless of final league position, surely?
With a trophy in the cabinet last season and Champions League football being played at St. James’ Park, there can be no argument that Newcastle are still on top… for now. Matching Opta’s prediction is crucial to making sure that the status quo is maintained.
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