Champions League permutations: What Newcastle United need to qualify ahead of Chelsea clash

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Newcastle United’s clash with Chelsea on Sunday could have huge implications in the battle for Champions League qualification. 

Indeed, Newcastle United are set for a Premier League showdown with Chelsea, who last week beat Liverpool to send a statement. 

The two sides are locked on the same points and an equal goal difference in the Premier League table. Eddie Howe’s side lead the Blues by only goals scored (45 to 41), so any victor at St James’ Park on Sunday will take a huge step into cementing their place in the top five. 

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
1	LiverpoolLiverpool	35	25	7	3	81	35	46	82
2	ArsenalArsenal	35	18	13	4	64	31	33	67
3	Man CityManchester City	36	19	8	9	67	43	24	65
4	NewcastleNewcastle	35	19	6	10	66	45	21	63
5	ChelseaChelsea	35	18	9	8	62	41	21	63

Still, Newcastle and Chelsea aren’t the only teams involved in the race. Manchester City are in third but dropped points to lowly Southampton on Saturday, while sixth-placed Aston Villa moved level on points with the Magpies and the Blues by beating Bournemouth. Unai Emery’s side, however, have played an extra game and have much worse goal difference.

The race for a top five is very tight, so here’s a look at the permutations involved in the battle for Champions League football. 

Champions League permutations: What do Newcastle United need to qualify?  

As pointed out by Craig Hope of the Daily Mail, six points from their final three games would all-but guarantee Newcastle a place in next season’s Champions League.

Howe’s side first host Chelsea on Sunday before traveling to Arsenal on Sunday 18 May, 2025. Their final game of the season comes at home to Everton on Sunday 25 May, 2025.  

Only two teams – Liverpool and Man City – have won more games than Newcastle at home this season (11). They also beat Chelsea at St James’ in the Carabao Cup back in October.  

With that in mind, they have to feel confident about beating both Chelsea and Everton at least. That would surely send them back into Europe’s elite club competition.  

How much money would Newcastle United earn by qualifying for the Champions League?

Newcastle could earn £17million by qualifying for the Champions League but the boost it would bring goes far beyond the obvious financial benefits.

Having it on offer would not only help convince the club’s biggest players to stay long-term, but it could also help attract big-name signings to St James’ this summer.  

With the format having changed since the club’s last appearance in it, Newcastle would be guaranteed at least eight games in the competition if they were to qualify for next season’s tournament

Howe’s side have already made history this season by winning the Carabao Cup. Still, and while it feels harsh, not qualifying for the Champions League at this stage would be seen as a disappointment.